**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?
100-101°F 36%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 15%
104-105°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-02
97°F or below
7%
98-99°F
15%
100-101°F
36%
102-103°F
26%
104-105°F
8%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
2%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114-115°F
<1%
116°F or higher
1%
100-101°F 36%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 15%
104-105°F 8%
最新
最新
2026-07-02
97°F or below
$52 交易量
7%
98-99°F
$237 交易量
15%
100-101°F
$2,457 交易量
36%
102-103°F
$165 交易量
26%
104-105°F
$156 交易量
8%
106-107°F
$110 交易量
2%
108-109°F
$150 交易量
2%
110-111°F
$136 交易量
1%
112-113°F
$540 交易量
1%
114-115°F
$1,174 交易量
<1%
116°F or higher
$123 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$5,299结束日期
2026-07-02市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,299结束日期
2026-07-02市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET**A strong heat dome over the eastern U.S. is driving the market's clustering around 100–103°F for NYC's July 2 high, with traders pricing in the latest model consensus for peak temperatures amid record-challenging heat ahead of the July 4 weekend.** Official NWS and private guidance show daytime highs climbing into the mid- or upper 90s with potential to reach or exceed 100°F under mostly sunny skies, high dew points, and urban heat-island amplification in Central Park observations. Key variables differentiating the closely matched 100–101°F (32.5%) and 102–103°F (28%) bins include the precise timing of maximum solar heating, any late-day convective cloud cover or sea-breeze moderation, and small revisions in ensemble guidance on 850-hPa temperatures. Historical July averages near 86°F underscore the anomaly, while overnight lows remaining in the low 80s limit radiational cooling and support sustained daytime peaks. New model runs and NWS updates through the morning of July 2 remain the primary near-term catalysts for shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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