Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月2日上海气温最高？
8月2日上海气温最高？
36°C 41%
37°C 29%
35°C 21%
34°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
10%
35°C
21%
36°C
41%
37°C
29%
38°C
4%
39°C
2%
40°C or higher
4%
36°C 41%
37°C 29%
35°C 21%
34°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
30°C or below
$133 交易量
<1%
31°C
$90 交易量
<1%
32°C
$92 交易量
3%
33°C
$64 交易量
8%
34°C
$40 交易量
10%
35°C
$66 交易量
21%
36°C
$108 交易量
41%
37°C
$217 交易量
29%
38°C
$1,887 交易量
4%
39°C
$77 交易量
2%
40°C or higher
$10 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$719结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$719结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent weather model consensus and persistent subtropical high pressure over eastern China have positioned mid-30s Celsius readings as the most probable outcomes for Shanghai’s August 2 maximum, driving the market’s heaviest implied probability on 36 °C. July’s observed peaks near 38–39 °C, sustained by above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the western Pacific and limited monsoon rainfall, have raised the baseline for early-August heat while urban heat-island effects and high humidity further elevate apparent temperatures. Ensemble forecasts currently cluster daily highs between 34–37 °C, with only modest chances of reaching 38 °C or above unless a stronger ridge builds. Traders therefore assign the highest weight to the 35–37 °C band, reflecting both climatological norms for the first week of August and the narrow window for significant model shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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