The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月20日东京气温最高？
7月20日东京气温最高？
33°C 31%
34°C 19%
32°C 16%
35°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-20
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
4%
31°C
6%
32°C
16%
33°C
31%
34°C
19%
35°C
13%
36°C
3%
37℃或以上
1%
33°C 31%
34°C 19%
32°C 16%
35°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-07-20
27°C or below
$350 交易量
<1%
28°C
$137 交易量
1%
29°C
$43 交易量
1%
30°C
$61 交易量
4%
31°C
$10 交易量
6%
32°C
$0 交易量
16%
33°C
$6 交易量
31%
34°C
$12 交易量
19%
35°C
$12 交易量
13%
36°C
$107 交易量
3%
37℃或以上
$200 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$938结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$938结束日期
2026-07-20市场开放时间
Jul 18, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThe closely matched probabilities for 33°C and 34°C as Tokyo’s July 20 high reflect short-range forecast uncertainty in the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble guidance, with typical midsummer Pacific high pressure supporting mid-30s readings but variable sea-breeze timing and cloud cover able to trim peaks by 1–2°C. Urban heat-island effects and low-level humidity further modulate daily maxima, while recent model runs show modest spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer mixing. Historical July averages near 31–32°C provide context, yet the market assigns meaningful weight to 32°C and 35°C outcomes because small shifts in steering flow or timing of any frontal passage could alter the peak by one degree either way before the 20th.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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