**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5, 2026, at 99.6% implied probability.** This positioning stems from consistent MetService and international forecast guidance showing a cool, showery day under southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to peak near 8–9°C at the official Wellington International Airport station. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers (some with hail), and gale-force southerlies limit daytime warming, aligning with typical mid-winter conditions in the region where average August maxima hover around 12–13°C but drop sharply during active frontal passages. Recent model runs and observational trends reinforce this outcome, with no significant warming signals or wind shifts anticipated before the daily high is reached. The strong market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in the official measurement criteria and the narrow uncertainty range around the forecast maximum. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any unexpected rapid clearance of showers or a temporary northerly wind shift that could push readings into double digits; however, current guidance shows low probability of such changes before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月5日惠灵顿的最高温度？
8月5日惠灵顿的最高温度？
9°C 99.7%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,552 交易量
$174,552 交易量
2026-08-05
3°C or below
<1%
4°C
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
100%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C or higher
<1%
9°C 99.7%
10°C <1%
3°C or below <1%
4°C <1%
$174,552 交易量
$174,552 交易量
2026-08-05
3°C or below
$1,150 交易量
<1%
4°C
$1,080 交易量
<1%
5°C
$3,076 交易量
<1%
6°C
$21,476 交易量
<1%
7°C
$31,419 交易量
<1%
8°C
$63,625 交易量
<1%
9°C
$18,558 交易量
100%
10°C
$15,195 交易量
<1%
11°C
$11,549 交易量
<1%
12°C
$4,041 交易量
<1%
13°C or higher
$3,383 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5, 2026, at 99.6% implied probability.** This positioning stems from consistent MetService and international forecast guidance showing a cool, showery day under southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to peak near 8–9°C at the official Wellington International Airport station. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers (some with hail), and gale-force southerlies limit daytime warming, aligning with typical mid-winter conditions in the region where average August maxima hover around 12–13°C but drop sharply during active frontal passages.
Recent model runs and observational trends reinforce this outcome, with no significant warming signals or wind shifts anticipated before the daily high is reached. The strong market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in the official measurement criteria and the narrow uncertainty range around the forecast maximum.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any unexpected rapid clearance of showers or a temporary northerly wind shift that could push readings into double digits; however, current guidance shows low probability of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$174,552结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5, 2026, at 99.6% implied probability.** This positioning stems from consistent MetService and international forecast guidance showing a cool, showery day under southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to peak near 8–9°C at the official Wellington International Airport station. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers (some with hail), and gale-force southerlies limit daytime warming, aligning with typical mid-winter conditions in the region where average August maxima hover around 12–13°C but drop sharply during active frontal passages.
Recent model runs and observational trends reinforce this outcome, with no significant warming signals or wind shifts anticipated before the daily high is reached. The strong market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in the official measurement criteria and the narrow uncertainty range around the forecast maximum.
Realistic challenges remain limited but include any unexpected rapid clearance of showers or a temporary northerly wind shift that could push readings into double digits; however, current guidance shows low probability of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$174,552结束日期
2026-08-05市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 9°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 5, 2026, at 99.6% implied probability.** This positioning stems from consistent MetService and international forecast guidance showing a cool, showery day under southerly flow, with daytime highs expected to peak near 8–9°C at the official Wellington International Airport station. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers (some with hail), and gale-force southerlies limit daytime warming, aligning with typical mid-winter conditions in the region where average August maxima hover around 12–13°C but drop sharply during active frontal passages. Recent model runs and observational trends reinforce this outcome, with no significant warming signals or wind shifts anticipated before the daily high is reached. The strong market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in the official measurement criteria and the narrow uncertainty range around the forecast maximum. Realistic challenges remain limited but include any unexpected rapid clearance of showers or a temporary northerly wind shift that could push readings into double digits; however, current guidance shows low probability of such changes before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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