**Current forecasts from MetService and model consensus point to a daily maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 6, 2026, under persistent southerly winds that advect cooler maritime air from higher latitudes.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C (54.5%) and 10°C (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of limited insolation and minimal warm advection during typical mid-winter conditions. Wellington’s August climatological mean maximum is approximately 12°C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest negative anomaly consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average temperatures overall (45% probability) amid equal chances of below-normal rainfall. Recent model runs show stable high-pressure setups steering polar air masses, with any northward flow shifts or delayed frontal passages offering the main upside risk to 12°C. Downside scenarios remain limited given the absence of stronger cold outbreaks in current guidance. Updated forecast briefings and observational data through August 5 will provide the next key inputs for market adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月6日惠灵顿的最高温度？
8月6日惠灵顿的最高温度？
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
最新
$28,183 交易量
最新
$28,183 交易量
2026-08-06
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
4%
10°C
34%
11°C
55%
12°C
9%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
11°C 55%
10°C 34%
12°C 9%
9°C 4%
最新
$28,183 交易量
最新
$28,183 交易量
2026-08-06
5°C or below
$373 交易量
<1%
6°C
$353 交易量
<1%
7°C
$581 交易量
<1%
8°C
$2,141 交易量
<1%
9°C
$4,266 交易量
4%
10°C
$4,416 交易量
34%
11°C
$5,662 交易量
55%
12°C
$4,972 交易量
9%
13°C
$3,496 交易量
1%
14°C
$577 交易量
<1%
15°C or higher
$1,347 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and model consensus point to a daily maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 6, 2026, under persistent southerly winds that advect cooler maritime air from higher latitudes.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C (54.5%) and 10°C (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of limited insolation and minimal warm advection during typical mid-winter conditions.
Wellington’s August climatological mean maximum is approximately 12°C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest negative anomaly consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average temperatures overall (45% probability) amid equal chances of below-normal rainfall. Recent model runs show stable high-pressure setups steering polar air masses, with any northward flow shifts or delayed frontal passages offering the main upside risk to 12°C. Downside scenarios remain limited given the absence of stronger cold outbreaks in current guidance. Updated forecast briefings and observational data through August 5 will provide the next key inputs for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$28,183结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and model consensus point to a daily maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 6, 2026, under persistent southerly winds that advect cooler maritime air from higher latitudes.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C (54.5%) and 10°C (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of limited insolation and minimal warm advection during typical mid-winter conditions.
Wellington’s August climatological mean maximum is approximately 12°C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest negative anomaly consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average temperatures overall (45% probability) amid equal chances of below-normal rainfall. Recent model runs show stable high-pressure setups steering polar air masses, with any northward flow shifts or delayed frontal passages offering the main upside risk to 12°C. Downside scenarios remain limited given the absence of stronger cold outbreaks in current guidance. Updated forecast briefings and observational data through August 5 will provide the next key inputs for market adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$28,183结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Current forecasts from MetService and model consensus point to a daily maximum of 10–11°C in Wellington on August 6, 2026, under persistent southerly winds that advect cooler maritime air from higher latitudes.** This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes at 11°C (54.5%) and 10°C (33.5%), reflecting trader assessment of limited insolation and minimal warm advection during typical mid-winter conditions. Wellington’s August climatological mean maximum is approximately 12°C, so the implied probabilities embed a modest negative anomaly consistent with NIWA’s seasonal outlook favoring near-average temperatures overall (45% probability) amid equal chances of below-normal rainfall. Recent model runs show stable high-pressure setups steering polar air masses, with any northward flow shifts or delayed frontal passages offering the main upside risk to 12°C. Downside scenarios remain limited given the absence of stronger cold outbreaks in current guidance. Updated forecast briefings and observational data through August 5 will provide the next key inputs for market adjustments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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