Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$116,111 交易量
$116,111 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
62%
民主党
40%
$116,111 交易量
$116,111 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$53,154 交易量
62%
民主党
$62,957 交易量
40%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
交易量
$116,111结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$116,111结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by retiring Republican Joni Ernst, continues to favor the GOP nominee in the November 3, 2026, general election due to the state's consistent Republican lean and historical voting patterns. The approaching June 2 primaries, featuring Republicans Ashley Hinson and Jim Carlin alongside Democrats Josh Turek and Zach Wahls, have drawn attention to candidate fundraising and early general-election matchups that remain close but still reflect Iowa's partisan baseline. Recent polling shows narrow head-to-head results in some pairings, yet the overall race rating from forecasters such as Cook Political Report holds at likely Republican. Traders appear to price in these structural advantages and limited Democratic path to victory in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 2014.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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