Iran’s armed forces struck a container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, following Tehran’s renewed declaration that the waterway would be closed without Iranian approval. This incident occurred amid stalled ceasefire talks, ongoing US naval interdictions of vessels linked to Iranian ports, and IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes. Maritime traffic has remained sharply reduced since earlier 2026 closures and attacks, with traders tracking verified strikes, vessel seizures, and diplomatic signals as key drivers of probabilities around successful targeting outcomes. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments in the region could still shift the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于伊朗通过……成功瞄准了航运？
伊朗通过……成功瞄准了航运？
最新
$121,402 交易量
2026-06-27
6月27日
11%
6月30日
26%
7月7日
33%
7月15日
64%
7月31日
71%
8月31日
78%
$121,402 交易量
6月27日
$76,704 交易量
11%
6月30日
$24,535 交易量
26%
7月7日
$18,231 交易量
33%
7月15日
$509 交易量
64%
7月31日
$1,140 交易量
71%
8月31日
$330 交易量
78%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s armed forces struck a container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, following Tehran’s renewed declaration that the waterway would be closed without Iranian approval. This incident occurred amid stalled ceasefire talks, ongoing US naval interdictions of vessels linked to Iranian ports, and IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes. Maritime traffic has remained sharply reduced since earlier 2026 closures and attacks, with traders tracking verified strikes, vessel seizures, and diplomatic signals as key drivers of probabilities around successful targeting outcomes. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments in the region could still shift the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ET
交易量
$121,402结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Iran’s armed forces struck a container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, following Tehran’s renewed declaration that the waterway would be closed without Iranian approval. This incident occurred amid stalled ceasefire talks, ongoing US naval interdictions of vessels linked to Iranian ports, and IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes. Maritime traffic has remained sharply reduced since earlier 2026 closures and attacks, with traders tracking verified strikes, vessel seizures, and diplomatic signals as key drivers of probabilities around successful targeting outcomes. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments in the region could still shift the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$121,402结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 7:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s armed forces struck a container ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, following Tehran’s renewed declaration that the waterway would be closed without Iranian approval. This incident occurred amid stalled ceasefire talks, ongoing US naval interdictions of vessels linked to Iranian ports, and IRGC enforcement of approved transit routes. Maritime traffic has remained sharply reduced since earlier 2026 closures and attacks, with traders tracking verified strikes, vessel seizures, and diplomatic signals as key drivers of probabilities around successful targeting outcomes. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments in the region could still shift the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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