Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district has locked in trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official and near-complete returns showed her securing roughly 48.6% to Espaillat’s 46%, a gap of about 3.5 points driven by strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Harlem and parts of the Bronx. The outcome reflected a successful progressive challenge backed by figures such as Zohran Mamdani, with Espaillat retaining advantages only among lower-income and Hispanic voters. With ballots largely counted and no widespread reports of irregularities, the probability of the margin exceeding 5% or flipping the result remains minimal. Late-stage developments that could still alter certified figures include a formal recount petition, discovery of significant uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to specific precinct totals, though none have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Avila Chevalier少于5% 96.2%
Avila Chevalier 10%以上 3.3%
Avila Chevalier 5-10% 3.3%
其他 <1%
$89,667 交易量
$89,667 交易量
2026-06-23
Avila Chevalier 10%以上
3%
Avila Chevalier 5-10%
3%
Avila Chevalier少于5%
96%
其他
<1%
Avila Chevalier少于5% 96.2%
Avila Chevalier 10%以上 3.3%
Avila Chevalier 5-10% 3.3%
其他 <1%
$89,667 交易量
$89,667 交易量
2026-06-23
Avila Chevalier 10%以上
$5,976 交易量
3%
Avila Chevalier 5-10%
$7,521 交易量
3%
Avila Chevalier少于5%
$21,705 交易量
96%
其他
$2,194 交易量
<1%
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district has locked in trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official and near-complete returns showed her securing roughly 48.6% to Espaillat’s 46%, a gap of about 3.5 points driven by strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Harlem and parts of the Bronx. The outcome reflected a successful progressive challenge backed by figures such as Zohran Mamdani, with Espaillat retaining advantages only among lower-income and Hispanic voters. With ballots largely counted and no widespread reports of irregularities, the probability of the margin exceeding 5% or flipping the result remains minimal. Late-stage developments that could still alter certified figures include a formal recount petition, discovery of significant uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to specific precinct totals, though none have emerged to date.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ET
交易量
$89,667结束日期
2026-06-23市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district has locked in trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official and near-complete returns showed her securing roughly 48.6% to Espaillat’s 46%, a gap of about 3.5 points driven by strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Harlem and parts of the Bronx. The outcome reflected a successful progressive challenge backed by figures such as Zohran Mamdani, with Espaillat retaining advantages only among lower-income and Hispanic voters. With ballots largely counted and no widespread reports of irregularities, the probability of the margin exceeding 5% or flipping the result remains minimal. Late-stage developments that could still alter certified figures include a formal recount petition, discovery of significant uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to specific precinct totals, though none have emerged to date.
Primary elections in New York are scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the NY-13 Democratic Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of New York, such as official statewide results published by the New York State Board of Elections (https://elections.ny.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$89,667结束日期
2026-06-23市场开放时间
Jun 18, 2026, 10:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Darializa Avila Chevalier’s narrow victory over incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th congressional district has locked in trader consensus around a sub-5% margin. Official and near-complete returns showed her securing roughly 48.6% to Espaillat’s 46%, a gap of about 3.5 points driven by strong performance among younger, college-educated, and higher-income voters in Harlem and parts of the Bronx. The outcome reflected a successful progressive challenge backed by figures such as Zohran Mamdani, with Espaillat retaining advantages only among lower-income and Hispanic voters. With ballots largely counted and no widespread reports of irregularities, the probability of the margin exceeding 5% or flipping the result remains minimal. Late-stage developments that could still alter certified figures include a formal recount petition, discovery of significant uncounted absentee or provisional ballots, or successful legal challenges to specific precinct totals, though none have emerged to date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题