RFK Jr. remains firmly positioned as HHS Secretary through early September 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the absence of any credible resignation signals or successful removal efforts despite sustained Democratic criticism. Senate Democrats have renewed calls for his ouster and investigations tied to vaccine policy shifts, ACIP restructuring, and alleged Hatch Act concerns from Iowa races, yet these have produced no binding procedural advances or administration action. President Trump has continued public support while Kennedy advances Make America Healthy Again priorities, including recent congressional budget testimony and food policy initiatives. Historical patterns of cabinet stability in aligned administrations and the lack of imminent deadlines or scandals within the October window reinforce the elevated implied probability that he serves past October 31.