Rapid advancements across global AI labs have created tight market-implied odds around 50% for numerous contenders in the third-best ranking by end of October, underscoring trader uncertainty amid swift model iterations and capability gains. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot lead implied probabilities at 19% and 14%, respectively, while Google sits at 31.5%, as competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, access to compute resources, and talent concentration. Established Western labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta trail at single-digit odds, reflecting perceptions of relative progress slowdowns. Upcoming benchmark releases, developer conferences, and regulatory shifts on AI safety could quickly recalibrate these skin-in-the-game consensus views.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Z.ai 31%
Google 27%
Moonshot 14%
Baidu 11%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Z.ai
26%
27%
Moonshot
14%
Baidu
11%
Alibaba
11%
Anthropic
9%
Amazon
9%
Xiaomi
8%
Meta
7%
ByteDance
7%
Mistral
7%
MiniMax
7%
Tencent
7%
DeepSeek
6%
OpenAI
6%
Meituan
6%
SpaceXAI
5%
Nvidia
5%
Thinky
5%
StepFun
5%
Microsoft
5%
Z.ai 31%
Google 27%
Moonshot 14%
Baidu 11%
最新
最新
2026-10-31
Z.ai
$67 交易量
26%
$74 交易量
27%
Moonshot
$41 交易量
14%
Baidu
$41 交易量
11%
Alibaba
$41 交易量
11%
Anthropic
$46 交易量
9%
Amazon
$46 交易量
9%
Xiaomi
$129 交易量
8%
Meta
$51 交易量
7%
ByteDance
$99 交易量
7%
Mistral
$131 交易量
7%
MiniMax
$179 交易量
7%
Tencent
$103 交易量
7%
DeepSeek
$92 交易量
6%
OpenAI
$39 交易量
6%
Meituan
$103 交易量
6%
SpaceXAI
$46 交易量
5%
Nvidia
$96 交易量
5%
Thinky
$34 交易量
5%
StepFun
$102 交易量
5%
Microsoft
$109 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid advancements across global AI labs have created tight market-implied odds around 50% for numerous contenders in the third-best ranking by end of October, underscoring trader uncertainty amid swift model iterations and capability gains. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot lead implied probabilities at 19% and 14%, respectively, while Google sits at 31.5%, as competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, access to compute resources, and talent concentration. Established Western labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta trail at single-digit odds, reflecting perceptions of relative progress slowdowns. Upcoming benchmark releases, developer conferences, and regulatory shifts on AI safety could quickly recalibrate these skin-in-the-game consensus views.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
交易量
$1,678结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Rapid advancements across global AI labs have created tight market-implied odds around 50% for numerous contenders in the third-best ranking by end of October, underscoring trader uncertainty amid swift model iterations and capability gains. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot lead implied probabilities at 19% and 14%, respectively, while Google sits at 31.5%, as competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, access to compute resources, and talent concentration. Established Western labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta trail at single-digit odds, reflecting perceptions of relative progress slowdowns. Upcoming benchmark releases, developer conferences, and regulatory shifts on AI safety could quickly recalibrate these skin-in-the-game consensus views.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,678结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Rapid advancements across global AI labs have created tight market-implied odds around 50% for numerous contenders in the third-best ranking by end of October, underscoring trader uncertainty amid swift model iterations and capability gains. Chinese developers including Z.ai and Moonshot lead implied probabilities at 19% and 14%, respectively, while Google sits at 31.5%, as competitive dynamics hinge on demonstrated large language model performance, access to compute resources, and talent concentration. Established Western labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta trail at single-digit odds, reflecting perceptions of relative progress slowdowns. Upcoming benchmark releases, developer conferences, and regulatory shifts on AI safety could quickly recalibrate these skin-in-the-game consensus views.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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