President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's May 11 speech renewing calls for a "new, inclusive, libertarian, civilian constitution" highlights ongoing ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) ambitions, but traders imply just a 22% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end, reflecting the AK Party-MHP alliance's roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly—short of the 360 votes required to pass a constitutional bill to referendum without cross-party support. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) refused to join reform talks in 2025, deepening deadlock. Early-year AK Party roadmaps and December 2025 commission drafts yielded no parliamentary action midway through 2026, with focus shifting toward 2028 presidential and legislative elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's May 11 speech renewing calls for a "new, inclusive, libertarian, civilian constitution" highlights ongoing ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) ambitions, but traders imply just a 22% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end, reflecting the AK Party-MHP alliance's roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly—short of the 360 votes required to pass a constitutional bill to referendum without cross-party support. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) refused to join reform talks in 2025, deepening deadlock. Early-year AK Party roadmaps and December 2025 commission drafts yielded no parliamentary action midway through 2026, with focus shifting toward 2028 presidential and legislative elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,631结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's May 11 speech renewing calls for a "new, inclusive, libertarian, civilian constitution" highlights ongoing ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) ambitions, but traders imply just a 22% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end, reflecting the AK Party-MHP alliance's roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly—short of the 360 votes required to pass a constitutional bill to referendum without cross-party support. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) refused to join reform talks in 2025, deepening deadlock. Early-year AK Party roadmaps and December 2025 commission drafts yielded no parliamentary action midway through 2026, with focus shifting toward 2028 presidential and legislative elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,631结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's May 11 speech renewing calls for a "new, inclusive, libertarian, civilian constitution" highlights ongoing ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) ambitions, but traders imply just a 22% chance of a referendum announcement by year-end, reflecting the AK Party-MHP alliance's roughly 318 seats in the 600-member Grand National Assembly—short of the 360 votes required to pass a constitutional bill to referendum without cross-party support. Main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) refused to join reform talks in 2025, deepening deadlock. Early-year AK Party roadmaps and December 2025 commission drafts yielded no parliamentary action midway through 2026, with focus shifting toward 2028 presidential and legislative elections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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