Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum and far below the 400 votes required for direct amendment. Despite President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting team and subsequent statements from party officials and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for progress in 2026–2027, no legislative timetable, opposition consensus, or formal announcement has emerged. Public surveys continue to show majority resistance to further changes, and the absence of sufficient cross-party support or scheduled parliamentary action has kept trader-implied odds heavily weighted against a referendum being called before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
18% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
18% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum and far below the 400 votes required for direct amendment. Despite President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting team and subsequent statements from party officials and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for progress in 2026–2027, no legislative timetable, opposition consensus, or formal announcement has emerged. Public surveys continue to show majority resistance to further changes, and the absence of sufficient cross-party support or scheduled parliamentary action has kept trader-implied odds heavily weighted against a referendum being called before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$6,170结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum and far below the 400 votes required for direct amendment. Despite President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting team and subsequent statements from party officials and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for progress in 2026–2027, no legislative timetable, opposition consensus, or formal announcement has emerged. Public surveys continue to show majority resistance to further changes, and the absence of sufficient cross-party support or scheduled parliamentary action has kept trader-implied odds heavily weighted against a referendum being called before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,170结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey’s ruling AKP holds roughly 321 of 600 parliamentary seats, well short of the 360-vote threshold needed to trigger a constitutional referendum and far below the 400 votes required for direct amendment. Despite President Erdoğan’s May 2025 appointment of a legal drafting team and subsequent statements from party officials and Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş expressing optimism for progress in 2026–2027, no legislative timetable, opposition consensus, or formal announcement has emerged. Public surveys continue to show majority resistance to further changes, and the absence of sufficient cross-party support or scheduled parliamentary action has kept trader-implied odds heavily weighted against a referendum being called before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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