Recent statements from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior AK Party officials in mid-May 2026 have reaffirmed the need for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with a party commission preparing proposals for briefing the president. Yet trader consensus heavily favors delay because advancing the measure requires either 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum or 400 votes for direct passage—thresholds that remain distant amid opposition resistance from the CHP and other parties. Preparatory efforts continue alongside parallel initiatives such as PKK-related reforms, but historical patterns show repeated postponements when broad consensus proves elusive. Scheduled legislative priorities and the polarized environment further reduce the near-term likelihood of formal movement within 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior AK Party officials in mid-May 2026 have reaffirmed the need for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with a party commission preparing proposals for briefing the president. Yet trader consensus heavily favors delay because advancing the measure requires either 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum or 400 votes for direct passage—thresholds that remain distant amid opposition resistance from the CHP and other parties. Preparatory efforts continue alongside parallel initiatives such as PKK-related reforms, but historical patterns show repeated postponements when broad consensus proves elusive. Scheduled legislative priorities and the polarized environment further reduce the near-term likelihood of formal movement within 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$1,631结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior AK Party officials in mid-May 2026 have reaffirmed the need for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with a party commission preparing proposals for briefing the president. Yet trader consensus heavily favors delay because advancing the measure requires either 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum or 400 votes for direct passage—thresholds that remain distant amid opposition resistance from the CHP and other parties. Preparatory efforts continue alongside parallel initiatives such as PKK-related reforms, but historical patterns show repeated postponements when broad consensus proves elusive. Scheduled legislative priorities and the polarized environment further reduce the near-term likelihood of formal movement within 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,631结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and senior AK Party officials in mid-May 2026 have reaffirmed the need for a new civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, with a party commission preparing proposals for briefing the president. Yet trader consensus heavily favors delay because advancing the measure requires either 360 parliamentary votes to trigger a referendum or 400 votes for direct passage—thresholds that remain distant amid opposition resistance from the CHP and other parties. Preparatory efforts continue alongside parallel initiatives such as PKK-related reforms, but historical patterns show repeated postponements when broad consensus proves elusive. Scheduled legislative priorities and the polarized environment further reduce the near-term likelihood of formal movement within 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题