Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold needed for a constitutional amendment to reach referendum or the 400 votes required for immediate effect without one. While senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced support for a new civilian charter in the 2026-2027 window and AKP commissions continue internal drafting work, recent priorities have centered on triggering early 2028 elections under Article 116 to enable President Erdogan’s candidacy rather than advancing a full constitutional overhaul this year. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus further constrain prospects for legislative movement before year-end. Traders therefore price a low probability of tangible progress on a new constitution within the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
10% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
10% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold needed for a constitutional amendment to reach referendum or the 400 votes required for immediate effect without one. While senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced support for a new civilian charter in the 2026-2027 window and AKP commissions continue internal drafting work, recent priorities have centered on triggering early 2028 elections under Article 116 to enable President Erdogan’s candidacy rather than advancing a full constitutional overhaul this year. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus further constrain prospects for legislative movement before year-end. Traders therefore price a low probability of tangible progress on a new constitution within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Turkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold needed for a constitutional amendment to reach referendum or the 400 votes required for immediate effect without one. While senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced support for a new civilian charter in the 2026-2027 window and AKP commissions continue internal drafting work, recent priorities have centered on triggering early 2028 elections under Article 116 to enable President Erdogan’s candidacy rather than advancing a full constitutional overhaul this year. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus further constrain prospects for legislative movement before year-end. Traders therefore price a low probability of tangible progress on a new constitution within the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,475结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETTurkey’s ruling AKP and its MHP ally hold roughly 326 seats in the 600-member parliament, short of the 360-vote threshold needed for a constitutional amendment to reach referendum or the 400 votes required for immediate effect without one. While senior figures including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have voiced support for a new civilian charter in the 2026-2027 window and AKP commissions continue internal drafting work, recent priorities have centered on triggering early 2028 elections under Article 116 to enable President Erdogan’s candidacy rather than advancing a full constitutional overhaul this year. Opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus further constrain prospects for legislative movement before year-end. Traders therefore price a low probability of tangible progress on a new constitution within the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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