**Regulatory and political barriers tied to US-China tensions remain the dominant factor holding the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** CXMT sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies, creating reputational and potential future licensing risks even though current rules do not outright prohibit purchases. Apple’s June–July 2026 lobbying for assurances against Entity List placement, plus reported testing for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes, has not produced confirmed orders or clearances. Bipartisan Senate pressure, including a July letter demanding a formal commitment by August 21 against using CXMT or YMTC, underscores the political headwinds. While CXMT’s September 2026 mass production of advanced LPDDR5X DRAM highlights its improving capabilities, these technical gains have not overcome the regulatory uncertainty or trader consensus that meaningful Apple purchases are unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
21% 概率
$22,350 交易量
$22,350 交易量
2026-12-31
是
21% 概率
$22,350 交易量
$22,350 交易量
2026-12-31
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and political barriers tied to US-China tensions remain the dominant factor holding the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** CXMT sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies, creating reputational and potential future licensing risks even though current rules do not outright prohibit purchases. Apple’s June–July 2026 lobbying for assurances against Entity List placement, plus reported testing for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes, has not produced confirmed orders or clearances. Bipartisan Senate pressure, including a July letter demanding a formal commitment by August 21 against using CXMT or YMTC, underscores the political headwinds. While CXMT’s September 2026 mass production of advanced LPDDR5X DRAM highlights its improving capabilities, these technical gains have not overcome the regulatory uncertainty or trader consensus that meaningful Apple purchases are unlikely before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
交易量
$22,350结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETAccording to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Regulatory and political barriers tied to US-China tensions remain the dominant factor holding the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** CXMT sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies, creating reputational and potential future licensing risks even though current rules do not outright prohibit purchases. Apple’s June–July 2026 lobbying for assurances against Entity List placement, plus reported testing for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes, has not produced confirmed orders or clearances. Bipartisan Senate pressure, including a July letter demanding a formal commitment by August 21 against using CXMT or YMTC, underscores the political headwinds. While CXMT’s September 2026 mass production of advanced LPDDR5X DRAM highlights its improving capabilities, these technical gains have not overcome the regulatory uncertainty or trader consensus that meaningful Apple purchases are unlikely before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$22,350结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET**Regulatory and political barriers tied to US-China tensions remain the dominant factor holding the "No" outcome at 79.5% implied probability.** CXMT sits on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies, creating reputational and potential future licensing risks even though current rules do not outright prohibit purchases. Apple’s June–July 2026 lobbying for assurances against Entity List placement, plus reported testing for China-market devices amid AI-driven memory shortages and price spikes, has not produced confirmed orders or clearances. Bipartisan Senate pressure, including a July letter demanding a formal commitment by August 21 against using CXMT or YMTC, underscores the political headwinds. While CXMT’s September 2026 mass production of advanced LPDDR5X DRAM highlights its improving capabilities, these technical gains have not overcome the regulatory uncertainty or trader consensus that meaningful Apple purchases are unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题