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icon for 民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?

民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?

icon for 民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?

民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?

49% 概率
Polymarket

$19,791 交易量

49% 概率
Polymarket

$19,791 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for "No" on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races—Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia—reflects balanced uncertainty across these battlegrounds heading into the November 2026 midterms. Democrats hold two of the seats while challenging two Republican-held ones in a map shaped by post-2024 partisan dynamics, with recent Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball updates moving North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska and Ohio toward toss-ups based on polling averages and candidate positioning. Fundraising advantages for Democrats in several states have narrowed gaps, yet Republican incumbency edges and national turnout patterns maintain parity. Key variables that could shift consensus include late-cycle polling shifts in Michigan (following Gary Peters' retirement) or Maine, primary outcomes, or broader economic indicators influencing swing-state voter sentiment before Election Day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
交易量
$19,791
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.The closely contested 51% implied probability for "No" on Democrats sweeping the core four Senate races—Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia—reflects balanced uncertainty across these battlegrounds heading into the November 2026 midterms. Democrats hold two of the seats while challenging two Republican-held ones in a map shaped by post-2024 partisan dynamics, with recent Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball updates moving North Carolina to Lean Democratic and Alaska and Ohio toward toss-ups based on polling averages and candidate positioning. Fundraising advantages for Democrats in several states have narrowed gaps, yet Republican incumbency edges and national turnout patterns maintain parity. Key variables that could shift consensus include late-cycle polling shifts in Michigan (following Gary Peters' retirement) or Maine, primary outcomes, or broader economic indicators influencing swing-state voter sentiment before Election Day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
交易量
$19,791
结束日期
2026-11-03
市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"民主党会赢得所有“四大关键”参议院选举吗?",概率为 49%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 49¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 49%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?"已产生 $19.8K 的总交易量(自Jan 13, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?"的当前领先者是"民主党会赢得所有“四大关键”参议院选举吗?",概率为 49%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 49%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"民主党会赢得所有“四大核心”参议院竞选吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。