Iran's qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through the AFC pathway, combined with FIFA's repeated public assurances of participation, has anchored trader expectations for a positive outcome. FIFA President Gianni Infantino explicitly confirmed in late April that the team will compete, including all group-stage matches on U.S. soil, despite ongoing Middle East tensions and visa processing delays reported in mid-May. Iranian football officials have signaled firm intent to attend while listing specific guarantees on security, logistics, and treatment, with direct FIFA-Iran meetings addressing these points in recent days. These developments have sustained the elevated implied probability for participation, even as final travel arrangements remain pending ahead of the summer tournament.