The Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s death and prior U.S.-Israel strikes on military and nuclear sites earlier in 2026. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was installed rapidly, security forces including the IRGC maintained cohesion without major defections, and the regime shifted to a more opaque, delegated command structure that absorbed leadership losses and economic siege without disintegration. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomacy over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear issues continues through mediators with no imminent trigger for regime-ending unrest inside the narrow window to October 31. Trader consensus at 99.1% for “No” aligns with this continuity, though abrupt escalation in protests, decisive external military action, or sudden elite fracture remain the primary variables that could still shift probabilities before the deadline.