The Philippine Senate's composition, featuring a notable bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family amid the Marcos-Duterte political rift, forms the core driver behind traders assigning a 64.5% probability against conviction by December 31, 2026. The House transmitted articles of impeachment on betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and constitutional violations in May 2026 after a 257-25 vote, with the trial opening July 6 and now in its procedural phase involving bank record subpoenas and debates over the 16-vote threshold among senator-judges. Some senators face detention or legal impediments, prompting amicus input on voting eligibility, while the extended schedule—projected well into 2027—limits resolution prospects within the market window. These Senate alignments and procedural hurdles sustain the prevailing trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于36% 概率
$13,235 交易量
$13,235 交易量
2026-12-30
36% 概率
$13,235 交易量
$13,235 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition, featuring a notable bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family amid the Marcos-Duterte political rift, forms the core driver behind traders assigning a 64.5% probability against conviction by December 31, 2026. The House transmitted articles of impeachment on betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and constitutional violations in May 2026 after a 257-25 vote, with the trial opening July 6 and now in its procedural phase involving bank record subpoenas and debates over the 16-vote threshold among senator-judges. Some senators face detention or legal impediments, prompting amicus input on voting eligibility, while the extended schedule—projected well into 2027—limits resolution prospects within the market window. These Senate alignments and procedural hurdles sustain the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
市场开放时间： May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
交易量
$13,235结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate's composition, featuring a notable bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family amid the Marcos-Duterte political rift, forms the core driver behind traders assigning a 64.5% probability against conviction by December 31, 2026. The House transmitted articles of impeachment on betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and constitutional violations in May 2026 after a 257-25 vote, with the trial opening July 6 and now in its procedural phase involving bank record subpoenas and debates over the 16-vote threshold among senator-judges. Some senators face detention or legal impediments, prompting amicus input on voting eligibility, while the extended schedule—projected well into 2027—limits resolution prospects within the market window. These Senate alignments and procedural hurdles sustain the prevailing trader consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$13,235结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETThe Philippine Senate's composition, featuring a notable bloc aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte and her family amid the Marcos-Duterte political rift, forms the core driver behind traders assigning a 64.5% probability against conviction by December 31, 2026. The House transmitted articles of impeachment on betrayal of public trust, graft, bribery, and constitutional violations in May 2026 after a 257-25 vote, with the trial opening July 6 and now in its procedural phase involving bank record subpoenas and debates over the 16-vote threshold among senator-judges. Some senators face detention or legal impediments, prompting amicus input on voting eligibility, while the extended schedule—projected well into 2027—limits resolution prospects within the market window. These Senate alignments and procedural hurdles sustain the prevailing trader consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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