Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and competitive early-September releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 have fragmented the race for second place among frontier labs. OpenAI’s low 6.5% implied probability reflects its flagship trailing slightly on agentic coding and efficiency metrics despite the new architecture, while xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek hover near 30% amid strong open-weight and cost-performance gains from Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai. Traders view the next two months as pivotal, with potential model updates or capability demonstrations likely to determine the #2 ranking by November under the style-control criteria.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMeta 31%
Anthropic 24%
Google 13%
OpenAI 8%
$10,071 Vol.
$10,071 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
31%
Anthropic
24%
13%
OpenAI
8%
Tencent
4%
DeepSeek
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
Moonshot
4%
Z.ai
4%
Microsoft
4%
MiniMax
3%
Alibaba
3%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 31%
Anthropic 24%
Google 13%
OpenAI 8%
$10,071 Vol.
$10,071 Vol.
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
$1,495 Vol.
31%
Anthropic
$1,024 Vol.
24%
$2,426 Vol.
13%
OpenAI
$281 Vol.
8%
Tencent
$690 Vol.
4%
DeepSeek
$392 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$212 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$192 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$232 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$192 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$926 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$236 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$196 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$185 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$192 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$240 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$192 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$195 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$192 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$192 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$192 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and competitive early-September releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 have fragmented the race for second place among frontier labs. OpenAI’s low 6.5% implied probability reflects its flagship trailing slightly on agentic coding and efficiency metrics despite the new architecture, while xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek hover near 30% amid strong open-weight and cost-performance gains from Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai. Traders view the next two months as pivotal, with potential model updates or capability demonstrations likely to determine the #2 ranking by November under the style-control criteria.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
ভলিউম
$10,071শেষ তারিখ
Dec 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and competitive early-September releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 have fragmented the race for second place among frontier labs. OpenAI’s low 6.5% implied probability reflects its flagship trailing slightly on agentic coding and efficiency metrics despite the new architecture, while xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek hover near 30% amid strong open-weight and cost-performance gains from Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai. Traders view the next two months as pivotal, with potential model updates or capability demonstrations likely to determine the #2 ranking by November under the style-control criteria.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ভলিউম
$10,071শেষ তারিখ
Dec 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent benchmark leadership by Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and competitive early-September releases from OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash, and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 have fragmented the race for second place among frontier labs. OpenAI’s low 6.5% implied probability reflects its flagship trailing slightly on agentic coding and efficiency metrics despite the new architecture, while xAI, Meta, and DeepSeek hover near 30% amid strong open-weight and cost-performance gains from Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai. Traders view the next two months as pivotal, with potential model updates or capability demonstrations likely to determine the #2 ranking by November under the style-control criteria.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা