Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 Vol.
$191,202 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
No
gemini-3.5-flash
No
Other
No
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99.7%
Other <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
$191,202 Vol.
$191,202 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$80,989 Vol.
Yes
claude-opus-4-6
$13,439 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$8,352 Vol.
No
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$6,121 Vol.
No
gemini-3.5-flash
$2,345 Vol.
No
Other
$79,956 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ET
ভলিউম
$191,202শেষ তারিখ
Jun 13, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
ভলিউম
$191,202শেষ তারিখ
Jun 13, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 5, 2026, 4:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...ফলাফল প্রস্তাবিত: Yes
কোনো ডিসপিউট নেই
চূড়ান্ত ফলাফল: Yes
Claude Opus 4.6 in thinking mode holds overwhelming trader consensus at 99.7% implied probability for the best AI model on June 13, driven by its sustained leadership across independent benchmarks including high scores on Humanity’s Last Exam, GDPval-AA for professional knowledge work, and agentic coding evaluations like Terminal-Bench. Released in February 2026, the model’s hybrid reasoning, 1M context window, and strong performance in multi-step planning and tool use have kept it ahead of later releases such as Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5 variants in key arenas. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute leaderboard updates, a surprise capability demonstration from competitors, or shifts in evaluation criteria favoring newer multimodal or cost-optimized systems. Traders view the current positioning as reflecting verified capability edges rather than speculation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা