Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April 2026 eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—amid energy cost spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks highlighted rising inflation risks, while staff projections now see 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6%, justifying tightening to anchor 2% expectations. No-change odds at 15.8% reflect hawkish-but-data-dependent signals from officials like Kocher, who noted June decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Cuts remain negligible amid sticky prices; watch May CPI and oil dynamics ahead of resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড25 bps Increase 85%
No change 15.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$231,702 Vol.
$231,702 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
16%
25 bps Increase
85%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 15.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$231,702 Vol.
$231,702 Vol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$45,203 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$39,997 Vol.
<1%
No change
$47,603 Vol.
16%
25 bps Increase
$53,486 Vol.
85%
50+ bps increase
$45,412 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April 2026 eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—amid energy cost spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks highlighted rising inflation risks, while staff projections now see 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6%, justifying tightening to anchor 2% expectations. No-change odds at 15.8% reflect hawkish-but-data-dependent signals from officials like Kocher, who noted June decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Cuts remain negligible amid sticky prices; watch May CPI and oil dynamics ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$231,702শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April 2026 eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—amid energy cost spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks highlighted rising inflation risks, while staff projections now see 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6%, justifying tightening to anchor 2% expectations. No-change odds at 15.8% reflect hawkish-but-data-dependent signals from officials like Kocher, who noted June decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Cuts remain negligible amid sticky prices; watch May CPI and oil dynamics ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ভলিউম
$231,702শেষ তারিখ
Jun 11, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 84.5% implied probability for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 2026 meeting, driven by April 2026 eurozone CPI surging to 3.0%—up from 2.6% in March—amid energy cost spikes tied to geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict. ECB President Lagarde's April 30 remarks highlighted rising inflation risks, while staff projections now see 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6%, justifying tightening to anchor 2% expectations. No-change odds at 15.8% reflect hawkish-but-data-dependent signals from officials like Kocher, who noted June decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Cuts remain negligible amid sticky prices; watch May CPI and oil dynamics ahead of resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা