Strong momentum in SpaceX and xAI valuations, anchored by their February 2026 merger at a combined $1.25 trillion and confidential IPO filings targeting $1.75–2 trillion, has pushed Elon Musk’s net worth near $800–850 billion and lifted trader consensus on the “Yes” outcome to 88.5%. Musk’s roughly 42% stake in the merged entity already contributes over half a trillion dollars, while Tesla’s continued progress on full self-driving software, Optimus humanoid robotics, and robotaxi deployment adds further upside through his 13% ownership plus performance-based options. Recent earnings and autonomy benchmarks have reinforced expectations that these milestones could arrive well before the 2027 deadline, though execution risks around IPO timing or broader market swings remain the primary variables still priced into the odds.