Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডপরিবর্তন নেই 94%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 4.7%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 2.1%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো <1%
$5,697,010 Vol.
$5,697,010 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
1%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
2%
পরিবর্তন নেই
94%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
5%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
<1%
পরিবর্তন নেই 94%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি 4.7%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো 2.1%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো <1%
$5,697,010 Vol.
$5,697,010 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$565,837 Vol.
1%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট কমানো
$455,871 Vol.
2%
পরিবর্তন নেই
$674,281 Vol.
94%
২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$3,432,404 Vol.
5%
৫০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট বৃদ্ধি
$568,640 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$5,697,010শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$5,697,010শেষ তারিখ
Jul 29, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are assigning a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting, driven by the Fed’s recent communications that underscore a data-dependent stance amid cooling but still above-target inflation readings and a resilient labor market. Market-implied odds for a 25 basis point adjustment remain low because incoming economic releases have not produced the decisive shift needed to alter the current policy path, with Treasury yields and swap rates reflecting similar expectations for steady rates through the summer. This consensus aligns with the central bank’s emphasis on sustained progress toward its 2% inflation goal without introducing undue volatility. Scenarios that could challenge the positioning include a sharper-than-expected downturn in June employment data or an inflation surprise that prompts officials to revise their forward guidance ahead of the meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা