Official National Weather Service observations placed the highest temperature in Los Angeles at 76-77°F on August 13, aligning with the market's near-certain consensus. Persistent marine layer clouds and onshore flow suppressed daytime heating along the coast, producing readings consistent with seasonal August averages near downtown and airport stations. Model guidance from NOAA's Global Forecast System and local mesoscale runs showed minimal deviation in this range, with no heat advection or clear-sky amplification to push values higher. The implied probability reflects verified post-event data rather than forecast uncertainty, leaving little room for alternative bins. Revisions to official records or station-specific anomalies remain the only realistic paths that could alter resolution.