Recent ensemble forecasts from models such as ECMWF and GFS show Warsaw maximum temperatures on August 24 clustering near 19–20°C amid partly cloudy skies and light showers, explaining the tight market spread between those two leading outcomes. Late-August climatology features declining solar insolation and increasing variability from passing Atlantic systems, which introduce uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover that can suppress daytime peaks by 1–2°C. Traders weigh official station measurements against these probabilistic spreads, with historical analogs indicating that similar setups often resolve in the 18–22°C range depending on exact steering flow and precipitation timing. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely refine the consensus ahead of resolution.