Recent forecasts from European ensemble models and agencies such as the BBC and timeanddate consistently indicate a daytime maximum near 16°C for Warsaw on June 14, 2026, driven by thundery showers, moderate westerly flow, and persistent cloud cover that reduces incoming solar radiation. This pattern suppresses temperatures well below the June climatological average of 22–24°C, with limited diurnal warming expected under overcast conditions. Traders have concentrated implied probabilities on the 15–17°C range, reflecting the narrow spread in short-range guidance and the absence of warmer-model scenarios. Official observations from the Polish meteorological service will resolve the market, and any late shifts in steering flow or cloud breaks could adjust the final peak within that narrow band.