**Structural barriers in the U.S. electoral system continue to limit independent success in congressional races.** Winner-take-all districts, ballot access rules, fundraising gaps, and major-party infrastructure have produced only a handful of independent winners in modern history, with most successful independents later caucusing with Democrats or Republicans. In the 2026 cycle, more than 200 independent candidates filed for House and Senate seats across dozens of districts, including notable Senate bids in Montana, Nebraska, and other states where Democrats have stepped aside to boost unaffiliated challengers. Despite this activity and some polling interest in nonpartisan options, analysts note that independents remain long shots in competitive races and face coordinated opposition labeling them as spoilers or covert partisans. Current trader pricing, with zero independents as the clear favorite, aligns with these persistent dynamics and the absence of late-cycle breakthroughs that would shift probabilities higher.