Recent model consensus from agencies including JMA and JTWC highlights rapid intensification potential for Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 45 mph sustained winds east of the Mariana Islands, driving the 60% market-implied odds for very strong typhoon status. Favorable conditions—warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and enhanced monsoon inflow—support strengthening to typhoon intensity within 24 hours and peaks near 125 knots, aligning with aggressive runs from HAFS-A and COAMPS-TC. Historical analogs in the western Pacific basin during August show similar systems often exceed 100 knots when steering patterns allow prolonged exposure to optimal environments. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics heavily against residual uncertainty in exact peak timing before any northward recurvature.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
How strong will Tropical Storm Saudel get?
Very Strong Typhoon 57%
Violent Typhoon 24%
Typhoon 21%
Severe Tropical Storm 17%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
11%
Severe Tropical Storm
17%
Typhoon
26%
Very Strong Typhoon
57%
Violent Typhoon
24%
Very Strong Typhoon 57%
Violent Typhoon 24%
Typhoon 21%
Severe Tropical Storm 17%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
Tropical Storm
$20 Vol.
11%
Severe Tropical Storm
$19 Vol.
17%
Typhoon
$37 Vol.
26%
Very Strong Typhoon
$35 Vol.
57%
Violent Typhoon
$44 Vol.
24%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus from agencies including JMA and JTWC highlights rapid intensification potential for Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 45 mph sustained winds east of the Mariana Islands, driving the 60% market-implied odds for very strong typhoon status. Favorable conditions—warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and enhanced monsoon inflow—support strengthening to typhoon intensity within 24 hours and peaks near 125 knots, aligning with aggressive runs from HAFS-A and COAMPS-TC. Historical analogs in the western Pacific basin during August show similar systems often exceed 100 knots when steering patterns allow prolonged exposure to optimal environments. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics heavily against residual uncertainty in exact peak timing before any northward recurvature.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
ভলিউম
$154শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Recent model consensus from agencies including JMA and JTWC highlights rapid intensification potential for Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 45 mph sustained winds east of the Mariana Islands, driving the 60% market-implied odds for very strong typhoon status. Favorable conditions—warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and enhanced monsoon inflow—support strengthening to typhoon intensity within 24 hours and peaks near 125 knots, aligning with aggressive runs from HAFS-A and COAMPS-TC. Historical analogs in the western Pacific basin during August show similar systems often exceed 100 knots when steering patterns allow prolonged exposure to optimal environments. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics heavily against residual uncertainty in exact peak timing before any northward recurvature.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
ভলিউম
$154শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from agencies including JMA and JTWC highlights rapid intensification potential for Tropical Storm Saudel, currently at 45 mph sustained winds east of the Mariana Islands, driving the 60% market-implied odds for very strong typhoon status. Favorable conditions—warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and enhanced monsoon inflow—support strengthening to typhoon intensity within 24 hours and peaks near 125 knots, aligning with aggressive runs from HAFS-A and COAMPS-TC. Historical analogs in the western Pacific basin during August show similar systems often exceed 100 knots when steering patterns allow prolonged exposure to optimal environments. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics heavily against residual uncertainty in exact peak timing before any northward recurvature.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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