Recent Brazilian election results have elevated prospects for Jair Bolsonaro’s clemency. In the October 2026 first round, his son Flávio Bolsonaro advanced to the October 25 runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after securing 47 percent of the vote. Flávio has repeatedly pledged to issue an indulto immediately upon inauguration in January 2027, a power the constitution grants the president without minimum waiting periods. A strengthened conservative congressional majority, including gains by the Liberal Party, also improves chances for complementary amnesty legislation. Supreme Court Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has signaled intent to review Bolsonaro’s 27-year coup-plot conviction after the runoff, potentially via injunction or full-court ruling. These aligned political and institutional developments underpin the current trader consensus on timely resolution.