Bolsonaro remains under conditional house arrest while serving a 27-year sentence handed down in 2025 for coup-plot convictions that exhausted ordinary appeals. Supreme Court Justice Kassio Nunes Marques has signaled he will address the pending criminal review and any related release request only after the October 25 presidential runoff, avoiding pre-election rulings. Full-court consideration of the defense’s challenge to digital evidence and procedural claims would require at least six votes and faces opposition from the panel that convicted him. Any pardon or sentence reduction tied to a potential Flavio Bolsonaro victory would occur after inauguration and still confront institutional and legal hurdles before March 2027. These factors underpin traders’ modest preference for the “No” outcome.