Recent El Niño onset, with NOAA declaring advisory status on June 11 and Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C amid rapid equatorial Pacific warming, stands as the dominant near-term driver supporting the market's strong consensus around 1.15–1.19°C for June 2026. This developing event, projected by multiple models to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent annual anomalies near 1.17–1.19°C above pre-industrial levels after 2024's record. Early 2026 months ran cooler amid the prior neutral-to-La Niña transition, tempering expectations for a June spike while model consensus and historical analogs point to moderate El Niño contributions emerging by boreal summer. Uncertainty persists around exact monthly realization due to natural variability and evolving sea-surface temperature forecasts, with upcoming seasonal updates from NOAA and ECMWF likely to refine trader positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 61%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 12%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
নতুন
নতুন
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$325 Vol.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 Vol.
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 Vol.
61%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,600 Vol.
12%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,290 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño onset, with NOAA declaring advisory status on June 11 and Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C amid rapid equatorial Pacific warming, stands as the dominant near-term driver supporting the market's strong consensus around 1.15–1.19°C for June 2026. This developing event, projected by multiple models to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent annual anomalies near 1.17–1.19°C above pre-industrial levels after 2024's record. Early 2026 months ran cooler amid the prior neutral-to-La Niña transition, tempering expectations for a June spike while model consensus and historical analogs point to moderate El Niño contributions emerging by boreal summer. Uncertainty persists around exact monthly realization due to natural variability and evolving sea-surface temperature forecasts, with upcoming seasonal updates from NOAA and ECMWF likely to refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
ভলিউম
$8,860শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño onset, with NOAA declaring advisory status on June 11 and Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C amid rapid equatorial Pacific warming, stands as the dominant near-term driver supporting the market's strong consensus around 1.15–1.19°C for June 2026. This developing event, projected by multiple models to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent annual anomalies near 1.17–1.19°C above pre-industrial levels after 2024's record. Early 2026 months ran cooler amid the prior neutral-to-La Niña transition, tempering expectations for a June spike while model consensus and historical analogs point to moderate El Niño contributions emerging by boreal summer. Uncertainty persists around exact monthly realization due to natural variability and evolving sea-surface temperature forecasts, with upcoming seasonal updates from NOAA and ECMWF likely to refine trader positioning.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$8,860শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño onset, with NOAA declaring advisory status on June 11 and Niño-3.4 anomalies reaching +0.7°C amid rapid equatorial Pacific warming, stands as the dominant near-term driver supporting the market's strong consensus around 1.15–1.19°C for June 2026. This developing event, projected by multiple models to intensify through the Northern Hemisphere winter, overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent annual anomalies near 1.17–1.19°C above pre-industrial levels after 2024's record. Early 2026 months ran cooler amid the prior neutral-to-La Niña transition, tempering expectations for a June spike while model consensus and historical analogs point to moderate El Niño contributions emerging by boreal summer. Uncertainty persists around exact monthly realization due to natural variability and evolving sea-surface temperature forecasts, with upcoming seasonal updates from NOAA and ECMWF likely to refine trader positioning.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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