Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of development by May-July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on global temperatures. This shift follows La Niña-driven cooling that kept 2025 and early 2026 anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, below 2024 peaks. The underlying anthropogenic warming trend continues to push baselines higher, while seasonal forecasts from models like ECMWF indicate elevated probabilities of above-average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These factors create tight clustering around the 1.10–1.24°C range for July 2026, with model spread and exact El Niño onset timing introducing the primary uncertainty ahead of official monthly data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.10ºC 43%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 43%
>1.29ºC 43%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
43%
1.10–1.14ºC
42%
1.15–1.19ºC
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
43%
1.25–1.29ºC
42%
>1.29ºC
43%
<1.10ºC 43%
1.15–1.19ºC 43%
1.20–1.24ºC 43%
>1.29ºC 43%
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$59 Vol.
43%
1.10–1.14ºC
$49 Vol.
42%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41 Vol.
43%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 Vol.
43%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62 Vol.
42%
>1.29ºC
$47 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of development by May-July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on global temperatures. This shift follows La Niña-driven cooling that kept 2025 and early 2026 anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, below 2024 peaks. The underlying anthropogenic warming trend continues to push baselines higher, while seasonal forecasts from models like ECMWF indicate elevated probabilities of above-average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These factors create tight clustering around the 1.10–1.24°C range for July 2026, with model spread and exact El Niño onset timing introducing the primary uncertainty ahead of official monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
ভলিউম
$303শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of development by May-July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on global temperatures. This shift follows La Niña-driven cooling that kept 2025 and early 2026 anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, below 2024 peaks. The underlying anthropogenic warming trend continues to push baselines higher, while seasonal forecasts from models like ECMWF indicate elevated probabilities of above-average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These factors create tight clustering around the 1.10–1.24°C range for July 2026, with model spread and exact El Niño onset timing introducing the primary uncertainty ahead of official monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$303শেষ তারিখ
Aug 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Emerging El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, with NOAA assigning an 82% probability of development by May-July 2026, represent the dominant near-term influence on global temperatures. This shift follows La Niña-driven cooling that kept 2025 and early 2026 anomalies near 1.1–1.2°C above the 20th-century average, below 2024 peaks. The underlying anthropogenic warming trend continues to push baselines higher, while seasonal forecasts from models like ECMWF indicate elevated probabilities of above-average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. These factors create tight clustering around the 1.10–1.24°C range for July 2026, with model spread and exact El Niño onset timing introducing the primary uncertainty ahead of official monthly data releases.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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