Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 80-90%, and scattered showers across the Sichuan Basin have limited nocturnal radiative cooling in Chengdu, anchoring the daily minimum in the mid-20s Celsius amid ongoing monsoon influences. Official forecasts from multiple models show lows of 21–25 °C depending on the exact timing and intensity of evening precipitation, which reduces the temperature drop by trapping longwave radiation and maintaining elevated dew points around 24 °C. These factors create tight market-implied odds between 23 °C and 26 °C, as modest shifts in wind speed or shower duration can alter the overnight minimum by 1–2 °C without changing the broader synoptic pattern. Historical August baselines and current model consensus support this narrow range, with resolution hinging on the final official station reading.