Forecast models from New Zealand’s MetService and NIWA currently project a maximum temperature near 15°C in Wellington on August 29, driving the dominant 68.5% market-implied probability for that outcome. Late-winter synoptic patterns feature a moderate southerly flow with limited cloud cover and weak high pressure building overnight, supporting daytime highs in the 14–16°C range under clear to partly cloudy skies. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 15°C, with minor spread toward 16°C if afternoon mixing strengthens or 14°C if marine air lingers. Historical climatology for late August places average highs near 13–14°C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly that traders have priced into the 15–16°C bracket. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine wind and cloud timing ahead of the market close.