Recent forecasts from sources including Yr.no, GFS-based models, and local analyses indicate Chongqing's overnight low on September 30 will likely reach 21–23°C amid persistent cloud cover, showers, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This aligns with the market's leading 22°C outcome at 50.5% implied probability, consistent with September's climatological average minimum near 22°C. Cooler 18°C-or-below scenarios (38%) would require stronger cold advection or clearer skies than current model consensus projects, while warmer 28°C+ readings (38%) appear unlikely given expected rain and moderating humidity. New observational data from official stations will resolve the market as the day progresses.