Recent official forecasts from multiple models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 16, consistent with the seasonal average low of 24.2°C amid lingering subtropical monsoon moisture. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers—driven by weak easterly flow and high humidity near 70–80%—limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows elevated, reducing the chance of dropping to 20°C or below. At the same time, the absence of strong cold-air advection or typhoon influences keeps the upper end near 30°C unlikely. Model consensus on these conditions explains the closely matched market odds between cooler and warmer extremes, with traders weighing small shifts in steering patterns or precipitation timing that could alter the overnight minimum by 1–2°C before resolution.