**Consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service and numerical models indicate the daily minimum temperature in New York City on September 20 will fall in the mid-60s amid persistent rain, heavy cloud cover, and southerly winds.** These conditions limit overnight radiative cooling, keeping surface temperatures elevated relative to clear-sky scenarios typical for late September. Official guidance shows an overnight low near 63–65°F, with daytime readings climbing only modestly into the upper 60s under 100% cloud cover and precipitation. This aligns with the market’s dominant 64–65°F outcome at 89.5% implied probability. Warmer-than-average steering patterns have prevented cooler Canadian air from arriving, while the rain event supplies additional latent heat and moisture that further moderates the low. Updated model runs and NWS briefings through the afternoon have reinforced this narrow temperature range, leaving little room for the lower or higher bins to gain traction before the calendar day ends.