**Forecast models and official guidance from the National Weather Service indicate an overnight low in the upper 50s°F for San Francisco on August 24, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s leading 58-59°F bin (46.5% implied probability).** Persistent marine layer influence and onshore westerly to southwesterly winds moderate coastal temperatures, limiting radiative cooling overnight under mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Recent observations and short-range model runs show minimums stabilizing near 58°F at key stations, consistent with the seasonal climatological average low of ~56°F for the date. No significant synoptic shifts—such as stronger offshore flow or clearer skies—are expected to drive the low substantially lower or higher, though minor variations in cloud cover or wind speed could nudge the final reading within the 56–61°F range. The 60–61°F outcome (23%) reflects residual uncertainty around exact timing of the minimum, while lower-probability bins capture less likely deviations from the consensus forecast. As the day concludes, official station data will resolve the market.