Recent weather models and observational trends position 22°C as the leading outcome for Shanghai’s June 15 minimum, with 23°C close behind, reflecting typical early-summer overnight values during the Meiyu plum-rain period of persistent cloud cover and humidity that moderates radiative cooling. Current forecasts from sources including timeanddate and BBC indicate lows near 21–22°C (roughly 70–72°F) under overcast skies and light easterly flow, consistent with June climatology where average lows rise from ~20°C early-month toward 24°C later. Elevated moisture and lack of clear-sky conditions suppress larger drops, while any brief clearing or wind shift could push readings toward 23–24°C. Official station data from the China Meteorological Administration, expected after midnight local time, will resolve the market; traders appear to weight ensemble guidance heavily given the narrow 1–2°C spread among top outcomes.