**Forecast models for Shenzhen on October 1 indicate a subtropical autumn pattern with highs near 30–33°C and minimum temperatures most likely in the mid-20s°C range, driven by warm, humid southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity.** Recent ensemble guidance shows modest disagreement on overnight cooling, with some runs favoring 25–27°C lows amid cloud cover and rain while others allow slightly clearer conditions that could dip closer to the 23°C threshold. Historical early-October averages place typical lows around 22–23°C, but current sea-surface temperatures and lack of strong northerly surges keep the near-term outlook warmer. Trader consensus splits near even between the 23°C-or-below and 33°C-or-higher buckets precisely because small shifts in timing of any frontal boundary or convective outflow could alter the overnight minimum by several degrees. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will be the key data points resolving this narrow uncertainty window.