Recent forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Wellington on September 16, driven by an approaching cold front that will introduce cooler southerly air after northwesterly flow. This setup creates uncertainty in the overnight low through variable cloud cover, scattered showers, and wind mixing that limits radiative cooling under clear spells. Historical September minima average near 9–10°C, but spring frontal passages often produce 2–4°C swings depending on exact timing and dew points. Trader sentiment remains split across buckets because small shifts in model consensus on front arrival or wind strength can move the observed low across the 9–12°C range, with higher outcomes favored only if northerlies persist longer than expected. Updated NHC-equivalent guidance and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.