**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.7%** because magnitude 8+ earthquakes remain rare on global timescales, with historical averages of roughly one to two such events per year worldwide according to USGS records. The brief window remaining until August 31 offers little opportunity for occurrence absent clear precursors such as intense foreshock swarms or anomalous strain accumulation along major subduction zones, none of which current seismic networks detect. Recent M7+ activity, including a 7.7 event off Indonesia in mid-August, has not triggered measurable escalation toward megathrust rupture. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen aftershock sequence surpassing the mainshock magnitude or rapid stress transfer in an overdue fault segment, though both remain low-probability outcomes given present monitoring data.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMegaquake by August 31?
Megaquake by August 31?
5% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
নতুন
নতুন
Aug 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.7%** because magnitude 8+ earthquakes remain rare on global timescales, with historical averages of roughly one to two such events per year worldwide according to USGS records. The brief window remaining until August 31 offers little opportunity for occurrence absent clear precursors such as intense foreshock swarms or anomalous strain accumulation along major subduction zones, none of which current seismic networks detect. Recent M7+ activity, including a 7.7 event off Indonesia in mid-August, has not triggered measurable escalation toward megathrust rupture. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen aftershock sequence surpassing the mainshock magnitude or rapid stress transfer in an overdue fault segment, though both remain low-probability outcomes given present monitoring data.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
ভলিউম
$4,881শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.7%** because magnitude 8+ earthquakes remain rare on global timescales, with historical averages of roughly one to two such events per year worldwide according to USGS records. The brief window remaining until August 31 offers little opportunity for occurrence absent clear precursors such as intense foreshock swarms or anomalous strain accumulation along major subduction zones, none of which current seismic networks detect. Recent M7+ activity, including a 7.7 event off Indonesia in mid-August, has not triggered measurable escalation toward megathrust rupture. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen aftershock sequence surpassing the mainshock magnitude or rapid stress transfer in an overdue fault segment, though both remain low-probability outcomes given present monitoring data.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ভলিউম
$4,881শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.7%** because magnitude 8+ earthquakes remain rare on global timescales, with historical averages of roughly one to two such events per year worldwide according to USGS records. The brief window remaining until August 31 offers little opportunity for occurrence absent clear precursors such as intense foreshock swarms or anomalous strain accumulation along major subduction zones, none of which current seismic networks detect. Recent M7+ activity, including a 7.7 event off Indonesia in mid-August, has not triggered measurable escalation toward megathrust rupture. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen aftershock sequence surpassing the mainshock magnitude or rapid stress transfer in an overdue fault segment, though both remain low-probability outcomes given present monitoring data.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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