Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding 70.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the June 23 NY-13 Democratic primary, driven by his strong incumbency advantage, superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1 million, and dominance among Hispanic voters in the diverse, renter-heavy district spanning upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 29%, has narrowed the gap per a March Upswing Research poll showing Espaillat ahead 42%-28% initially but trailing 35%-46% after messaging on her housing and progressive platform; her endorsements from DSA, Justice Democrats, UAW New York, and ex-Rep. Jamaal Bowman fuel momentum amid soft incumbent support and left-leaning trends from recent local races. Early voting and turnout will be pivotal in this closely watched contest.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAdriano Espaillat 71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%
Oscar Romero 1.8%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$22,629 Vol.
$22,629 Vol.
Adriano Espaillat
71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
29%
Oscar Romero
2%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
Adriano Espaillat 71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%
Oscar Romero 1.8%
Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%
$22,629 Vol.
$22,629 Vol.
Adriano Espaillat
71%
Darializa Avila Chevalier
29%
Oscar Romero
2%
Theo Chino-Tavarez
<1%
Megan Rodriguez
<1%
Jaleel Amador
<1%
James Felton Keith
<1%
Matt Miller
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding 70.5% implied probability in trader consensus for the June 23 NY-13 Democratic primary, driven by his strong incumbency advantage, superior cash-on-hand exceeding $1 million, and dominance among Hispanic voters in the diverse, renter-heavy district spanning upper Manhattan and the Bronx. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 29%, has narrowed the gap per a March Upswing Research poll showing Espaillat ahead 42%-28% initially but trailing 35%-46% after messaging on her housing and progressive platform; her endorsements from DSA, Justice Democrats, UAW New York, and ex-Rep. Jamaal Bowman fuel momentum amid soft incumbent support and left-leaning trends from recent local races. Early voting and turnout will be pivotal in this closely watched contest.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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