Mark Smith has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the June 9 Republican primary for South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, an open seat created by Rep. Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial campaign. Traders assign him a 70.5% implied probability, driven by his nearly $727,000 in fundraising through March and his record as a state representative from Berkeley County. A mid-April candidate forum straw poll showed Smith ahead at 34.1%, narrowly edging Alex Pelbath, a retired Air Force colonel emphasizing military service and Trump-aligned priorities who has raised roughly $365,000. Sam McCown and the remaining candidates trail in both fundraising and early voter attention within the nine-person field. Recent forums and grassroots events continue to shape positioning ahead of the primary.