Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 28% chance of OpenAI launching a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism over early-year rumors of a bot-proof platform with biometric verification that have failed to materialize amid the company's pivot to core AI priorities. Leaks in January suggested internal prototypes rivaling X, but by mid-May, OpenAI has instead rolled out Daybreak for cybersecurity, enterprise deployment tools, and teased advanced models like "Spud," alongside hardware collaborations with Jony Ive for screenless devices targeting late 2026. The experimental Sora video-sharing app, launched in 2025, is now shutting down, underscoring limited commitment to social features. With no official announcements or developer previews six months in, traders see high barriers including resource strain from massive training costs and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, making a year-end debut unlikely without major catalysts like a surprise roadmap update.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$50,526 Vol.
$50,526 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$50,526 Vol.
$50,526 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 28% chance of OpenAI launching a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism over early-year rumors of a bot-proof platform with biometric verification that have failed to materialize amid the company's pivot to core AI priorities. Leaks in January suggested internal prototypes rivaling X, but by mid-May, OpenAI has instead rolled out Daybreak for cybersecurity, enterprise deployment tools, and teased advanced models like "Spud," alongside hardware collaborations with Jony Ive for screenless devices targeting late 2026. The experimental Sora video-sharing app, launched in 2025, is now shutting down, underscoring limited commitment to social features. With no official announcements or developer previews six months in, traders see high barriers including resource strain from massive training costs and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, making a year-end debut unlikely without major catalysts like a surprise roadmap update.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
ভলিউম
$50,526শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 28% chance of OpenAI launching a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism over early-year rumors of a bot-proof platform with biometric verification that have failed to materialize amid the company's pivot to core AI priorities. Leaks in January suggested internal prototypes rivaling X, but by mid-May, OpenAI has instead rolled out Daybreak for cybersecurity, enterprise deployment tools, and teased advanced models like "Spud," alongside hardware collaborations with Jony Ive for screenless devices targeting late 2026. The experimental Sora video-sharing app, launched in 2025, is now shutting down, underscoring limited commitment to social features. With no official announcements or developer previews six months in, traders see high barriers including resource strain from massive training costs and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, making a year-end debut unlikely without major catalysts like a surprise roadmap update.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ভলিউম
$50,526শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 28% chance of OpenAI launching a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism over early-year rumors of a bot-proof platform with biometric verification that have failed to materialize amid the company's pivot to core AI priorities. Leaks in January suggested internal prototypes rivaling X, but by mid-May, OpenAI has instead rolled out Daybreak for cybersecurity, enterprise deployment tools, and teased advanced models like "Spud," alongside hardware collaborations with Jony Ive for screenless devices targeting late 2026. The experimental Sora video-sharing app, launched in 2025, is now shutting down, underscoring limited commitment to social features. With no official announcements or developer previews six months in, traders see high barriers including resource strain from massive training costs and regulatory scrutiny on AI safety, making a year-end debut unlikely without major catalysts like a surprise roadmap update.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা