OpenAI’s focus on core large language model development, enterprise agents, and GPT-6 scaling has kept resources away from social products, supporting the 90.5% market-implied probability of no 2026 release. The company shut down its short-lived Sora video social app in March 2026 after rapid user decline and high costs, redirecting efforts to ChatGPT integrations and developer tools rather than standalone platforms. Early 2026 reports described a small-team biometric verification prototype still in conceptual stages with no public timeline or announcement, and subsequent updates have emphasized API reliability and agent infrastructure over network features. A late-year pivot or rebranded integration could theoretically shift odds, yet the absence of credible progress or capacity signals reinforces trader consensus that a qualifying public social network remains unlikely before December 31.