Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine has featured repeated strikes near the Polish border, including drone attacks on trains and infrastructure in mid-September 2026, which NATO officials described as attempts to intimidate allies supporting Kyiv. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate a possible limited Russian incursion into a NATO member, such as in the Baltics or Poland, could occur from fall 2026 onward through 2029 to test alliance cohesion, though no large-scale troop concentrations on NATO frontiers have been observed. Moscow continues hybrid operations, including sabotage and airspace violations, while Russian officials reaffirm security demands regarding NATO expansion and express openness to Ukraine talks without altering core positions. NATO has responded by increasing eastern flank defenses and aid commitments.

May 4 2026

NATO steps up Arctic readiness as Russia expands submarine fleet

Reports of increased Russian submarine activity in the High North and NATO’s Arctic response were covered by Bloomberg. Though not a direct invasion threat, the story reinforced a perception of renewed Russian aggression, contributing to the market’s modest rebound to 3 % before the final slide to 2 %.

Apr 22 2026

Dutch intelligence says Russia could be ready for NATO conflict within a year

June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%

The MIVD’s annual report warned that Russia could be ready to launch a regional conflict against NATO within a year of the Ukraine war ending, aiming for limited territorial gains. The assessment raised concerns about a possible Russian offensive, pushing the market’s Yes probability up to 5 % in late‑April.

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