Ukraine's ongoing war with Russia and repeated extensions of martial law—most recently until August 2026—continue to block presidential elections under constitutional rules, sustaining Volodymyr Zelenskyy's incumbency beyond his 2019 term's formal expiration. Parliament has approved these extensions in 90-day increments, while the constitution permits the sitting president to exercise powers until a successor is sworn in. Zelenskyy has tied any vote to a prior ceasefire and security guarantees, resisting external pressure for a 2026 ballot. Recent statements and draft legislation focus on post-martial-law procedures, with no election scheduled before late 2026 at earliest. Traders price an 89% chance he remains in office through year-end, reflecting these structural and wartime constraints.