**Recent polls position the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) at or below the 17% threshold ahead of the September 20, 2026 Berlin state election (Abgeordnetenhauswahl).** Aggregated survey data from institutes including INSA, Civey, and Infratest dimap place their support in the 16–17% range through mid-August, with the most recent INSA poll (August 7–13) showing 16%. This follows earlier 2026 readings that have kept the party stable or slightly lower than its 18.4% result in the prior election, amid a tight four-way contest involving the Left (Die Linke), CDU, and AfD. Key drivers include limited momentum for the Greens’ top candidate Werner Graf, low public satisfaction with the outgoing CDU-SPD Senate, and voter fragmentation that favors other parties in hypothetical runoffs and coalition calculations. No major recent policy announcements or events have boosted Green support in the final weeks, while the broader polling trend—reflected in the wisdom of crowds via real-money markets—places their likely vote share under 17%. Uncertainties remain around turnout, late shifts, and the five-percent threshold dynamics for smaller parties, but current evidence supports the observed trader positioning on the under side.