Democrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging D+5 in recent polls like those tracked by Race to the WH and Nate Silver's aggregates, underpins trader consensus for a 73.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s. Recent shifts in race ratings, including Cook Political Report moving Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio Senate seats toward Democrats, alongside Kalshi's 73% odds for a Democratic House majority, have bolstered sentiment for House flips and potential Senate gains in battleground states. With primaries looming this summer, economic indicators and redistricting disputes in states like Louisiana could further influence paths to victory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$42,863 Vol.
$42,863 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
Ja
$42,863 Vol.
$42,863 Vol.
30. Nov. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging D+5 in recent polls like those tracked by Race to the WH and Nate Silver's aggregates, underpins trader consensus for a 73.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s. Recent shifts in race ratings, including Cook Political Report moving Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio Senate seats toward Democrats, alongside Kalshi's 73% odds for a Democratic House majority, have bolstered sentiment for House flips and potential Senate gains in battleground states. With primaries looming this summer, economic indicators and redistricting disputes in states like Louisiana could further influence paths to victory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$42,863Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging D+5 in recent polls like those tracked by Race to the WH and Nate Silver's aggregates, underpins trader consensus for a 73.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s. Recent shifts in race ratings, including Cook Political Report moving Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio Senate seats toward Democrats, alongside Kalshi's 73% odds for a Democratic House majority, have bolstered sentiment for House flips and potential Senate gains in battleground states. With primaries looming this summer, economic indicators and redistricting disputes in states like Louisiana could further influence paths to victory.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volumen
$42,863Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging D+5 in recent polls like those tracked by Race to the WH and Nate Silver's aggregates, underpins trader consensus for a 73.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the 2026 midterms, reflecting historical midterm penalties for the president's party amid President Trump's approval ratings in the high 30s to low 40s. Recent shifts in race ratings, including Cook Political Report moving Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio Senate seats toward Democrats, alongside Kalshi's 73% odds for a Democratic House majority, have bolstered sentiment for House flips and potential Senate gains in battleground states. With primaries looming this summer, economic indicators and redistricting disputes in states like Louisiana could further influence paths to victory.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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