A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
**Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton on 7 July 2026, amid parliamentary scrutiny over undeclared financial gifts and donor support, has triggered the by-election, which he immediately announced he will contest.** Traders price him at 87% to win, reflecting his 2024 general election victory in the seat with 46.2% of the vote for Reform UK and a substantial majority over the Conservatives. The move frames the contest as a direct appeal to voters against institutional oversight, with investigations into his finances set to pause during the campaign but potentially resume if he succeeds. Other candidates trail notably, including Labour's Jovan Owusu-Nepaul at 44% and Conservative Giles Watling at 39%, aligning with their lower shares in the prior election. Early betting markets also show Reform UK as heavy favorites, consistent with the constituency's recent voting pattern and Farage's established local support. The by-election date remains to be confirmed but is expected shortly.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Jul 8 2026
Farage's rivals publicly criticize by-election as a political stunt amid financial scrutiny
Nigel Farage drops to 90%5%
Opposition parties and figures criticized Farage's by-election as a distraction from financial investigations, reinforcing their decision not to contest and solidifying Farage's dominant position in the race.
Jul 8 2026
Reform UK requests Clacton by-election date of August 6
Following Farage's resignation, Reform UK formally requested the by-election be held on August 6, setting the expected timeline for the contest and confirming Farage's intention to stand again.
Jul 8 2026
Chancellor Rachel Reeves approves Farage's resignation and by-election
Rachel Reeves formally accepted Farage's resignation, allowing the by-election to proceed despite calls to block it until investigations conclude. This confirmed the by-election's legitimacy and timing.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties rule out contesting Clacton by-election triggered by Farage's resignation
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Restore Britain all announced they would not stand candidates against Farage, effectively boycotting the by-election. This reduced competition and increased Farage's chances of winning significantly.
Jul 7 2026
Comedian Count Binface confirms candidacy in Clacton by-election against Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Count Binface, a satirical candidate, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming Farage's only significant challenger after major parties boycotted. This introduced a novelty element to the race but did not seriously threaten Farage's lead.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 8%4%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only significant opponent to Farage. This led to a modest increase in Binface's market probability from 4% to 8%.
Jul 7 2026
Tony Mack declines to run in Clacton by-election, calls Farage's move cynical
Tony Mack plunges to 0%37%
Tony Mack, former Reform candidate displaced by Farage in 2024, announced he would not stand in the by-election, criticizing Farage's resignation as a cynical ploy. This removed a potential challenger, reinforcing Farage's dominance.
Jul 7 2026
Labour candidate Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and others ruled out by party for by-election
Jovan Owusu-Nepaul plunges to 0%44%
Labour decided not to contest the by-election, withdrawing support for Jovan Owusu-Nepaul and other candidates, citing Farage's financial scandal and strategic focus elsewhere. This led to a collapse in their market probabilities to near zero.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties announce boycott of Clacton by-election triggered by Farage
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, effectively leaving Farage without major party opposition. This reduced competition increased Farage's chances and market price.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface confirms candidacy for Clacton by-election as sole major challenger to Farage
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Comedian Jon Harvey, running as Count Binface, confirmed he would stand in the by-election, becoming the only notable challenger to Farage. This led to a rise in Binface's market price from 4% to around 7-8%.
Jul 7 2026
Count Binface gains media attention as main opposition in Clacton by-election
Count Binface rises to 7%3%
Media coverage highlighted Count Binface as the main challenger to Farage, increasing public awareness and market interest, which contributed to his price rise in the prediction market.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage frames by-election as 'people versus the establishment' contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 93%6%
Farage positioned the by-election as a referendum on his political standing amid allegations, appealing to his base and reinforcing his market odds as the favorite to win.
Jul 7 2026
Nigel Farage resigns as MP for Clacton, triggering by-election which he will contest
Nigel Farage jumps to 95%8%
Farage announced his resignation to force a by-election and stand again, aiming to let the people of Clacton judge him amid allegations of undeclared gifts and financial scrutiny. This announcement caused Farage's market probability to rise sharply to around 87-95%.
Jul 7 2026
Major parties boycott Clacton by-election amid Farage's financial scandal
Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain all ruled out contesting the by-election, citing Farage's ongoing parliamentary standards investigation and calling the by-election a political stunt. This reduced the chances of other candidates and consolidated Farage's position as the favorite.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
„Clacton by-election Winner" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Nigel Farage" mit 90%, gefolgt von „Count Binface" mit 8%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 90¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 90% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.
Stand heute hat „Clacton by-election Winner" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $1.1 million generiert, seit der Markt am Jul 7, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.
Um auf „Clacton by-election Winner" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 8 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.
Der aktuelle Favorit für „Clacton by-election Winner" ist „Nigel Farage" mit 90%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 90% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Count Binface" mit 8%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.
Die Auflösungsregeln für „Clacton by-election Winner" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.
Ja. Sie müssen nicht handeln, um informiert zu bleiben. Diese Seite dient als Live-Tracker für „Clacton by-election Winner". Die Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn neue Handelsgeschäfte eingehen. Sie können diese Seite als Lesezeichen speichern und den Kommentarbereich lesen, um zu sehen, was andere Händler sagen. Sie können auch die Zeitfilter im Diagramm nutzen, um zu sehen, wie sich die Quoten im Laufe der Zeit verändert haben.
Polymarket-Quoten werden von echten Händlern festgelegt, die echtes Geld hinter ihre Überzeugungen setzen, was tendenziell genaue Vorhersagen hervorbringt. Mit $1.1 million Handelsvolumen bei “Clacton by-election Winner” aggregieren diese Preise das kollektive Wissen und die Überzeugung Tausender Teilnehmer — oft genauer als Umfragen, Expertenprognosen und traditionelle Erhebungen. Prognosemärkte wie Polymarket haben eine starke Erfolgsbilanz bei der Genauigkeit, besonders wenn Ereignisse sich ihrem Auflösungsdatum nähern. Beispielsweise hat Polymarket einen Einmonats-Genauigkeitswert von 94%. Für die neuesten Statistiken zur Vorhersagegenauigkeit von Polymarket besuchen Sie die Genauigkeitsseite auf Polymarket.
Um Ihren ersten Handel auf „Clacton by-election Winner" zu platzieren, erstellen Sie ein kostenloses Polymarket-Konto und laden Sie es mit Krypto, Kredit- oder Debitkarte oder Banküberweisung auf. Sobald Ihr Konto aufgeladen ist, kehren Sie zu dieser Seite zurück, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, auf das Sie handeln möchten, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie neu bei Prognosemärkten sind, klicken Sie auf den Link „So funktioniert es" oben auf jeder Polymarket-Seite für eine Schritt-für-Schritt-Anleitung.
Auf Polymarket repräsentiert der Preis jedes Ergebnisses die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes. Ein Preis von 90¢ für „Nigel Farage" im Markt „Clacton by-election Winner" bedeutet, dass Händler kollektiv eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von etwa 90% sehen, dass „Nigel Farage" das korrekte Ergebnis sein wird. Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile bei 90¢ kaufen und das Ergebnis korrekt ist, erhalten Sie $1,00 pro Anteil – ein Gewinn von 10¢ pro Anteil. Ist es falsch, sind diese Anteile $0 wert.
Der Markt „Clacton by-election Winner" ist geplant, um am oder um den Jun 30, 2027 aufgelöst zu werden. Das bedeutet, dass der Handel offen bleibt und die Quoten sich weiter verschieben, bis dieses Datum erreicht ist. Der genaue Auflösungszeitpunkt hängt davon ab, wann das offizielle Ergebnis verfügbar ist, wie im Abschnitt „Regeln" beschrieben.
Der Markt „Clacton by-election Winner" hat eine aktive Community mit 42 Kommentaren, in der Händler ihre Analysen teilen, Ergebnisse diskutieren und aktuelle Entwicklungen besprechen. Scrollen Sie zum Kommentarbereich unten, um zu lesen, was andere Teilnehmer denken. Sie können auch nach „Top-Haltern" filtern oder den Tab „Aktivität" für einen Echtzeit-Feed von Handelsgeschäften prüfen.
Polymarket ist der größte Prognosemarkt der Welt, auf dem Sie informiert bleiben und von Ihrem Wissen über reale Ereignisse profitieren können. Händler kaufen und verkaufen Anteile an Ergebnissen zu Themen von Politik und Wahlen bis hin zu Krypto, Finanzen, Sport, Technologie und Kultur, einschließlich Märkten wie „Clacton by-election Winner". Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten wider, die durch finanzielle Überzeugung gestützt werden — oft schneller und genauer als Umfragen, Experten oder traditionelle Erhebungen.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen