Daniel Noboa’s decisive re-election in April 2025 for a full term through 2029 supplies the dominant institutional stability behind traders’ 95.5 percent “No” consensus that he will remain Ecuador’s president through June 30. No impeachment proceedings or resignation signals have surfaced in the National Assembly, while opposition-driven recall efforts announced ahead of May Day protests face a high signature threshold equivalent to roughly 10 percent of the electorate—a process that cannot realistically reach a binding vote within the six-week window. Recent cabinet adjustments and security measures reflect routine governance rather than crisis. The only developments capable of shifting odds involve an unforeseen institutional shock, sudden health event, or verified legal action that accelerates removal procedures before the deadline.